Quantum computing has moved from theoretical promise to experimental reality. Small systems with tens or hundreds of qubits now exist, and early demonstrations show potential for solving problems that stretch beyond classical capabilities. Yet the scale remains insufficient for practical impact. Reaching one million qubits by 2028 is audacious, but boldness has always defined technological leadership. Setting such a mission recalls the space race, when ambitious goals galvanized national strategy, investment, and talent. Erik Hosler, an observer of quantum technology strategy, underscores that national leadership depends on setting goals as bold as they are difficult. His perspective highlights why the audacity of the mission matters as much as the technical details.
A million-qubit quantum computer would be a threshold event. Current Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) systems lack the fidelity and error correction required for meaningful computation. By contrast, a million-qubit machine could achieve fault tolerance, enable billions of sequential operations and unlock applications from materials discovery to cryptography. Whether or not the 2028 goal is met exactly, framing the mission in such bold terms signals intent, mobilizes resources, and shapes global competition.
Why One Million Qubits Matters
Today’s quantum systems, while impressive, are limited in scope. Devices from leading players use dozens to a few hundred physical qubits. Noise and error rates restrict them to short experiments, far from solving real-world challenges.
Quantum computers require error correction to perform useful work. It involves bundling thousands of noisy physical qubits into a single logical qubit capable of reliable computation. Estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands to millions of physical qubits will be needed to achieve the scale where practical applications emerge.
At one million qubits, researchers believe quantum systems could simulate complex molecules, accelerate AI training, and break certain encryption standards. It is not incremental improvement, but it is the leap from laboratory prototypes to a new era of computation.
Scaling Barriers
The path to one million qubits is fraught with technical challenges. Noise remains the most significant. In current systems, error rates are high, requiring thousands of physical qubits to support a single logical qubit. The ratio of physical to logical qubits today is roughly 1,000:1, though it varies depending on fidelity and architecture.
Control systems add complexity. Each qubit must be precisely manipulated, often at cryogenic temperatures. Scaling control electronics without overwhelming power and cooling budgets is a major challenge. Fabrication consistency also matters, as qubits must be manufactured with uniform performance to allow error correction to function effectively. These barriers are formidable, but not insurmountable. History shows that once scaling challenges are clearly defined, coordinated innovation can accelerate solutions.
Pathways to a Million
Several approaches are competing to reach the million-qubit milestone.
Photonic Quantum Computing: PsiQuantum is pursuing a photonic architecture that uses light particles rather than matter to represent qubits. Photonics promises scalability by leveraging existing semiconductor fabrication techniques, with the company targeting a million-qubit system.
Superconducting Qubits: Companies like IBM and Google are advancing superconducting platforms. These qubits are relatively mature but face scaling challenges in cryogenics and fabrication.
Trapped Ion Qubits: IonQ and others use charged atoms trapped by electromagnetic fields. Trapped ions offer high fidelity but are slower and harder to scale to massive numbers.
Each approach has strengths and weaknesses. Photonics emphasizes manufacturability, superconductors emphasize maturity, and trapped ions emphasize precision. The competition itself is healthy, ensuring multiple pathways are explored in parallel.
Strategic Boldness
Why set a goal as bold as one million qubits by 2028? Because ambition itself has strategic value.
National missions shape ecosystems. They attract talent, mobilize funding, and provide a clear narrative for industry and academia to align with. The space race accelerated aerospace, materials, and computing industries far beyond their initial scope. Similarly, a quantum race can energize broader sectors, from cryogenics to photonics.
Boldness also sends signals internationally. By declaring ambitious missions, nations set the terms of competition. Even if milestones slip, leadership accrues to those who articulate and pursue the most ambitious visions. Quantum computing is not just about algorithms—it is about demonstrating the capacity to organize innovation at scale.
Allied Collaboration
No single nation can achieve a million-qubit quantum computer alone. The resources, expertise, and infrastructure required are immense. Collaboration among trusted allies will be essential to share costs, pool talent, and coordinate standards. Allied partnerships also create resilience, ensuring that progress continues even if one nation encounters political or funding setbacks. Shared efforts can spread risk while amplifying the collective pace of innovation.
Erik Hosler says, “PsiQuantum aims to build a million-qubit system, with manufacturing already underway.” His observation underscores that boldness is no longer hypothetical. Commercial players are already committing to million-qubit goals, aligning with the ambition policymakers are beginning to articulate. This convergence of private ambition and public mission makes allied collaboration even more urgent.
Joint research centers, shared fabrication facilities, and coordinated standards for error correction and control systems can accelerate progress. Aligning efforts reduces duplication and ensures that breakthroughs remain within secure networks of trust.
From Ambition to Leadership
A million-qubit quantum computer by 2028 may or may not be realized on schedule, but the mission itself matters. It frames the challenge in terms of being bold enough to mobilize resources and inspire participation. Without such ambition, progress risks becoming incremental and fragmented. Even if the timeline slips, the pursuit of this mission will generate breakthroughs in materials, fabrication, and algorithms that strengthen the entire computing ecosystem. By declaring bold objectives, leaders create momentum that endures beyond individual milestones.
Leadership in quantum computing will not be determined by who first demonstrates a small improvement. It will be defined by who sets the most audacious missions and organizes ecosystems to pursue them. The million-qubit goal is precisely that kind of mission.
From ambition comes leadership. By setting bold objectives, the U.S. and its allies can position themselves at the forefront of quantum computing. Even if the 2028 milestone is adjusted, the pursuit itself will deliver breakthroughs that shape the future of computing, national security, and global competitiveness.
